SJC Exchange Library

Originally posted by Jeremy Cherson on 06/16/2025

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Hi everyone,

Last week, The Bail Project released a new report, The False Promise of Bail: Analysis of Pretrial Release Mechanisms and Court Appearance in Tulsa County, Oklahoma, revealing that cash bail has no measurable impact on whether people return to court. The findings challenge the central justification for a system that jails legally innocent people based solely on their financial means.

The report analyzes the outcomes from more than 3,300 individuals arrested and booked into the David L. Moss Criminal Justice Center over a one-year period. Researchers examined court appearance rates and case outcomes based on different pretrial release mechanisms – including payment of cash bail (by individual or bail bond agent), release through charitable bail support from The Bail Project, pretrial supervision, personal recognizance release, and pretrial detention. 

Key Findings

• Cash bail is not associated with better court appearance rates - Most people in the study returned to court regardless of their release mechanism.  The study adds to growing research that proves money – in the form of cash bail paid upfront or the purchase of a bail bond – is neither necessary or an effective way to incentivize people to participate in the resolution of their court cases.

• The commercial bail bond industry profits from Tulsa's inequitable system. Nearly half (48%) of the study participants secured pretrial release through a bail bond agent, paying a nonrefundable premium. This aligns with broader industry trends: in 2023, the U.S. commercial bail sector generated $2.4 billion in revenue – an increase of 4.3% since 2018. 

• Cash bail buys freedom faster. Among those ultimately released, the fastest way out of jail is to pay for it. Those who could afford to pay bail – especially through a bail bond agent – were released after an average of just 4 days. Meanwhile, those released under supervision spent an average of 7 days in jail, while those released on their own recognizance waited 22 days. Among the 948 people held in jail throughout their pretrial period, the average stay was 105 days. 

• Judges impose harsher penalties on people released without paying. When individuals missed court, judges issued failure-to-appear warrants more frequently for those who did not pay for their release than those released through a commercial bail bond or their own cash bail payment. This unequal treatment increases the risk of reincarceration and further legal jeopardy for the poorest defendants. 

• Pretrial freedom leads to better case outcomes. People released pretrial were 30% less likely to plead guilty compared to those detained (50% vs. 71%) and were nearly twice as likely to have their cases dismissed (36% vs. 19%). These differences suggest that pretrial freedom enables individuals to more effectively participate in their defense and avoid coercive plea deals.

Thanks!
Jeremy
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Jeremy Cherson
Director of Communications
The Bail Project