SJC Exchange Library

Originally posted by Wendy Sawyer on 02/24/2025

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Hi everyone,

All too often, the specter of recidivism gets in the way of criminal legal reform. Whether it's presented as individual stories or (poorly-contextualized) statistics, opponents of reform invoke recidivism to argue that change is "too dangerous" to attempt. Earlier this month, the Prison Policy Initiative released a new guide to recidivism statistics and their history, and how advocates for decarceration can challenge the way these flawed statistics are used to undermine their efforts.

The guide covers:

• The history of the "Willie Horton Effect," why the power of political backlash against reform is overhyped, and how advocates should respond when lawmakers are swayed by individual, decontextualized stories of recidivism.
• The different types of recidivism metrics and what they mean, how and why to be cautious about commonly-cited statistics, and the role of "technical" probation and parole violations and minor offenses in driving recidivism.
• Recidivism statistics related to people convicted of violent/sexual offenses, in the context of common arguments for "carving out" these individuals from criminal legal reforms.
• How to push lawmakers to consider other metrics of post-release success besides recidivism, focusing on a person's quality of life and contributions to their community.

This guide is part of our ever-expanding Advocacy Toolkit, a series of resources for criminal legal reform advocates based on our own research and advocacy.

We'll also be hosting a webinar at 1 PM EST on Wednesday, March 19, where our Policy and Advocacy Manager Sarah Staudt will discuss pushing back against unproductive and inaccurate uses of recidivism stories and statistics. We hope to see you there! You can register for the webinar at https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_b1IP4-XPTqO17Pqr6wpxrA#/registration.

Take care,

Wendy

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Wendy Sawyer
Prison Policy Initiative
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